The number of covid-19 cases and the rate at which the virus passes from person to person are still too near a dangerous tipping point to consider major lockdown changes, Nicola Sturgeon has said.

New modelling produced by the Scottish Government suggests relaxing restrictions now would see the country’s 4,250 covid-19 hospital beds fill up in just three months.

Ms Sturgeon said the restrictions on daily life had brought about “real progress” but there were still an estimated 26,000 Scots who have the virus.

This number would need to fall significantly before policymakers have enough “headroom” to make changes to lockdown measures, she said, because any easing could push the number back up and overwhelm the NHS.

In one case modelled by government scientists, the most likely result of fully re-opening primary schools and nurseries in May would be hospitals running out of beds in mid-June.

It is estimated that 26,000 people currently have the virus in Scotland.

Currently, due to social distancing measures reducing opportunities for the virus to jump from person to person, on average each carrier passes covid-19 on to 0.8 other people – a rate known as the R number.

But if social restrictions are lifted, the R number could increase past one and the number of people requiring hospital treatment would start to grow exponentially.

The analysis says little will change “until the estimated number of new cases is significantly lower and R is sufficiently below 1”.

Scotland could have a higher transmission rate than the rest of the UK, the research states, although it says the modelling used is not precise.

The First Minister did say there could be scope to relax certain elements of the rules later in the year, including allowing people out of the house for exercise more than once a day.

Further ideas under consideration include what Ms Sturgeon described as a social “bubble”, in which people would be allowed to meet with a small, self-contained group of others.

Officials are also considering resuming some routine NHS services and screening programmes, she said.

Pressure is mounting on the Scottish Government to begin reopening the NHS in Scotland as the health service in England starts to resume services scaled back due to the virus.

Senior doctors have also voiced concerns about the effect the shutdown is having on other patients.

Some cancer treatments have had to delayed or altered, while NHS Scotland halted non-urgent procedures in mid-March.

Cancer patients are instead being sent to private hospitals, which do not have emergency departments and stand a better chance of being covid-free with rigorous screening of patients and staff.

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