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NHS could be overwhelmed even with lockdown |
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© Richard Johnson
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Nicola Sturgeon today announced a tightening up of restrictions, as government analysis warned the pandemic was growing and parts of the NHS could be overwhelmed ‘even under a “stay at home” scenario’.
This comes as Scotland records the highest level of weekly deaths linked to covid-19 since May and hospital admissions and infection numbers remain “far too high”.
In the seven days up to 10th January, 384 deaths with covid-19 were registered by National Records of Scotland.
Six additional restrictions were announced today, including limiting click and collect to essential goods only, banning alcohol consumption outside and stopping indoor collections from takeaways.
The measures were attributed to the increasing spread of the new, more transmissible strain of the virus that makes it harder to get the R number below one “without severe restrictions”.
The First Minister said weekly infection numbers, which have trebled since early December, were "far too high" and more had to be done to reduce pressure on the health service.
Data from Public Health Scotland shows the new variant now makes up 62% of new cases analysed by UK government labs in Scotland, up from just under half a week ago.
Scottish government analysis published today states it is ‘very likely that this strain will continue to increase in dominance in Scotland in a similar way to that already seen in London and South East England.’
It is estimated that the new strain increases transmission by somewhere between 40% and 70%.
The analysis warns the virus is ‘likely in another growth phase’.
It goes on to say: ‘[With] the current pattern of case numbers we expect to see rising levels of infection impacting on hospital and ICU, which could lead to the potential of the NHS being overwhelmed in some areas, even under a “stay at home” scenario.’
Pressures on hospitals are increasing, with NHS Ayrshire & Arran becoming the third board to suspend all planned surgery yesterday to save capacity for covid-19 patients.
NHS Lanarkshire, which took the decision yesterday, warned that it had just 46 free beds left for new patients and that covid-19 patient numbers were set to double to just under 600 in the coming weeks.
Updated death figures from NRS take the total number of covid-19 related deaths in Scotland since the start of the pandemic to 7,074.
The 384 recorded deaths from 4th to 10th January was an increase of nearly 200 on the week before.
Speaking in the Scottish Parliament, Ms Sturgeon said some of the rise could be down to deaths that had happened over Christmas and New Year being registered later.
It means that the number of deaths in the week up to Sunday was 34% higher than would be expected in a normal year.
Of last week’s total, 251 occurred in hospitals, 113 in care homes and 19 at home or elsewhere. |
