The number of people with lung cancer may rise by as much as two thirds in the coming 20 years, with interim modelling suggesting a third more women will be diagnosed with breast cancer by 2044.

Public health leaders reflecting on the Burden of Disease reports say beyond prevention and early intervention, Scotland needs to tackle fundamental causes of inequality and poor health if the trends are to be changed.

The Public Health Scotland (PHS) interim findings on the burden of disease across the country predicts that more, not fewer, people will be living with lung, breast and bowel cancer by 2044.

Despite advances in cancer research and public health efforts, including increased screening programmes and the rollout of Rapid Cancer Diagnostic Service, the number of women with breast cancer could reach 71,000 by 2044 – an increase of around 30% from 2019.

The number of colorectal cancer cases is estimated to rise by up to 44% for the same period – affecting around 41,700 people two decades from now.

Research and External Affairs Director at Bowel Cancer UK Dr Lisa Wilde said the “concerning” estimates could result from a variety of factors and underpin the need for more investment in research.

Dr Wilde added that with around half of all bowel cancer preventable with healthy lifestyle and early interventions, national public health efforts focused on prevention are needed:

“We need to raise greater awareness of bowel cancer and its symptoms and help for people to live healthier lifestyles.

“Bowel cancer is treatable and curable, especially if diagnosed early, and screening is one of the best ways to spot it at an early stage.

“We call on the Scottish government to urgently evaluate what changes are needed in the screening pathway to ensure patients get a timely diagnosis, including the cost of additional staff, equipment, and other necessary infrastructure.

“This rise in cases isn’t inevitable if action is taken now.”

However, the biggest predicted increase according to the interim figures, will be the number of people with lung cancer in Scotland could reach 16,800 a rise of around 59% from 2019.

Cabinet Secretary for Health and Care Neil Gray told healthandcare.scot that cancer remains a national priority for the Scottish government:

“We are taking action to improve the awareness and earlier diagnosis of cancers. This includes expanding our Rapid Cancer Diagnostic Services, with a new service opened just last month in NHS Forth Valley.

“We will continue to build on our track record of strong public health interventions to prevent cancers where possible.

“These include measures to reduce smoking prevalence – including ensuring children born after 1 January 2009 can never legally buy tobacco as part of the Tobacco and Vapes Bill.”

A debate on the government’s Tobacco and Vapes Bill takes place tomorrow which will see MSPs vote on stronger regulation of tobacco and vapes sales across Scotland.

Last year PHS reported a ‘substantial’ drop in cancer-related deaths over the last 25 years which researchers explained stemmed from successful public health prevention policies and screening programmes.

Dr Fatim Lakha, PHS Consultant in Public Health Medicine has emphasised the Scottish Burden of Disease reports’ findings are ‘not inevitable’, and that they offer an ‘opportunity for action’ to improve health outcomes.

Writing for PHS, Dr Lakha recently highlighted the ‘key role’ of bringing partners across health, care and wider services together to address the root causes of health inequality and prevent illness alongside national prevention schemes.

Doctors group SHAAP Chair also commented after the previous report revealed that Scots living with liver disease could rise by 54% that public health measures could reduce harms and save lives.

Public Health Scotland has told healthandcare.scot that the final Scottish Burden of Disease reports on cancer-specific forecasts are scheduled to be published on the 24th of June.

Read more: Scots urged to act fast on head and neck cancer; New collaboration to tackle health inequalities; High cancer risk for adults with learning disabilities; Lung health priorities ‘abandoned’; Partnership working for Scotland's population health; Chief medic: Innovate to tackle health & planet crises; Rise in breast cancer screening uptake; Relentless focus” on health inequalities

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