The number of GPs barely changed in the six years leading up to the pandemic despite patient numbers rising steadily, new figures show.

Public Health Scotland statistics released yesterday show the GP headcount went from 4,394 in 2013 to 4,400 in 2019.

The number of full-time shifts being delivered actually fell by 2% in this period, from 3675 to 3612.

During this time, the number of patients registered with GP practices rose, as the population of Scotland grew by 3%, or 136,000 people.

Last month Dr Andrew Buist, GP partner and chair of BMA Scotland GP Committee, said he and his colleagues were under ‘huge pressure’.

‘The average full-time GP in central Scotland will have 1,500 to 1,600 patients: as the population has aged and consultation rates have risen, it’s no longer a manageable number,’ he wrote in The Scotsman.

‘We entered this pandemic with a capacity imbalance that has been further exposed: our patients want a certain level of care and we want that too, but right now, there just aren’t enough of us to provide this. And that’s hugely concerning.’

A whole-time equivalent is defined by Public Health Scotland as eight weekly contracted GP sessions.

The Scottish government pledged in 2017 to recruit “at least” an extra 800 GPs by 2027.

Audit Scotland warned in 2019 that the number of GPs might be increasing but this was being outweighed by more choosing to work part-time.

The watchdog said the impact of older doctors retiring was not being considered by the Scottish government.

Separate figures, which include specialist trainees, indicate the total GP headcount increased by 89 in 2019-20. However no whole-time equivalent statistics have been published.

Health and care secretary Humza Yousaf insisted last month the government remains on track to meet the commitment.

In response to a parliamentary question, he said: ‘We have taken a number of actions, including increasing the number of medical places at universities, and taking steps to encourage medical graduates to choose general practice.

‘To that end, between 2015-16 and 2021-22 the Scottish Government will have increased the annual intake of medical places in Scottish universities from 848 to 1117 (269 places, a 32% increase). The majority of these new places are focused on general practice.

‘By increasing the amount of undergraduate curriculum that is delivered in general practice to 25%, we are confident increased exposure to general practice will encourage more students to train as GPs. With an increase of 89 GPs in 2019/20 we are now confident we are starting to see the positive impact of these actions.’

GPs have expressed ‘surprise’ at proposals to move their contracts to a National Care Service.

Dr Chris Williams, Joint Chair of the Royal College of GPs Scotland, said the changes were contained within a “hefty” consultation and “as a result may not have come to the attention of GPs who continue to face unrelenting workload pressures”.

 

Read more: GP contract causing pharmacist "workforce drain"; Government denies move to take GPs out of NHS; ’No target’ for face to face GP appointments

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