New analysis has revealed a dramatic drop of around 4,000 cancer diagnoses during the first months of the pandemic.

Diagnoses fell by 40% between March and June compared to the year before, according to Public Health Scotland, in a snapshot of just some of the indirect health effects of coronavirus.

The news has prompted concerns that people will have their cancer found at a later stage when treatment is harder or even no longer possible.

It also raises fears that the NHS will struggle to cope with more patients with advanced cancers at a time when it is already under pressure.

The decline is thought to be due to a combination of fewer people going to their GP with concerning symptoms, the suspension of screening services for some cancers and reduced diagnostic services and treatment.

Between January and March 2020, the number of people who had a pathological diagnosis of cancer was similar to the number in the same period in 2019.

But between March and June, numbers fell by around 4,000 – 40% lower than in the same period in 2019.

In response to the figures, Interim Chief Medical Officer Dr Gregor Smith repeated the message that the “NHS remains open” and urged the public to see their GP if they had worrying symptoms.

He added: “This data includes the period from April to June 2020, at the height of the pandemic, when people were being encouraged to stay home and NHS boards were speedily preparing plans in response to COVID-19 and increasing critical care capacity. At this time, cancer referrals dramatically reduced and national screening programmes were paused. However, these have since resumed, improving our ability to detect cancer early.

“Even at the height of the pandemic, once a decision to treat was made cancer patients waited on average two days for treatment.

“The majority of cancer treatments have continued throughout the pandemic – the NHS Scotland Winter Preparedness Plan, announced last month by the Cabinet Secretary, makes clear that cancer treatment must remain a priority in the NHS and the forthcoming Cancer Recovery Plan will further reinforce this.”

“The impacts of covid-19, including the need for physical distancing and increased infection control measures, continue to pose challenges to capacity, but we are working closely with NHS boards to monitor this and explore innovative solutions.”

The drop in diagnoses follows concerns that the pandemic could be affecting the quality of care that people with a range of non-covid conditions receive at the end of their lives.

Deaths in hospital have fallen dramatically as numbers dying at home surged by more than 4,000 above usual levels.

Macmillan’s head of policy in Scotland, Kate Seymour, said the fall in cancer diagnoses was “staggering”:

“Delays in diagnoses can lead to unnecessary deaths, as well as people facing more serious treatments that leave them with long term health issues.

“The Scottish government must ensure the cancer care system has the resources to diagnose and treat thousands of additional people, many of whom may have more advanced cancers than would normally be expected due to the delays.

“The government must also launch a widespread public awareness campaign urging anyone with cancer symptoms to contact their GP. It’s vital everyone understands GPs are still open.”

Marion O’Neill, Head of External Affairs at Cancer Research UK, said: “The NHS remains open for business and it’s important people know they can still access a doctor.

“For patients to have confidence that they’re receiving services in a safe space, it’s also important they also know that healthcare staff are being routinely tested for covid-19. This must include those working in GP surgeries.

“And while it’s vital that people are encouraged to visit their GP and have confidence to do so, the Scottish government also needs to address the backlog of people waiting for tests.”

 

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