The cost of living crisis could see increased early deaths and falling life expectancy almost on the scale of covid-19 according to new research, which suggests the energy price guarantee and targeted support will not go far enough to mitigate the impact of rising costs on Scotland’s health.

A health impact assessment report from Public Health Scotland shows that premature mortality could increase by as much as 6.4% across Scotland’s population due to falling incomes.

Life expectancy is expected by the researchers to fall by almost a full year.

For comparison, the first year of the pandemic saw a 7.4% increase in early death while life expectancy has decreased by around 10 weeks on average between 2018-20 and 2019-21.

People from more deprived areas will be much more significantly affected by cost rises say the researchers - even with the energy price guarantee and cost of living support payments from the Scottish and UK governments, they are expected to be £1,400 worse off in real terms in 2022/23.

The report estimates 68 more premature deaths per 100,000 of the population in the most deprived areas could occur per year.

Other negative impacts on population health are also likely says the report, including increased harmful gambling, poorer housing conditions, reduced access to social interaction and support, and adverse effects on child development and education.

The assessment suggests if inflation remains high for several years without proportionate changes in incomes from wages, pension and social security, these effects may be compounded.

The Public Health Scotland researchers are calling for the incomes for low-income households to be protected, and for both public and community services – including those providing debt advice, mental health and substance use support, and housing services – to be supported.

Alongside emergency responses, the rapid health impact assessment says it is important to address the ‘underlying weaknesses in social infrastructure’ that have worsened people’s health over time.

During the assessment, the researchers were warned that temporary solutions like food banks and warm banks risk becoming normalised as part of the social structure.

Read more: Inside Scotland's widening health inequalities; Cash needed for disabled people and carers; Can Scotland make health fairer?

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